More people voted for the Spirits this year than ever before: Film Independent has grown to over 7,000 members, adding more international voters. Spirits have a $22.5 million budget cap; international film qualification is based on the writer, director, and producer’s country of origin. A foreign-language with an American story (like, say, “Minari”) is not an international film; nor is “The Father.”
Leading the 2021 Indie Spirit Awards nominations with seven is Eliza Hittman’s critics’ favorite “Never Rarely Sometimes Always,” which did not make the cut at the Oscars, and might not win any Spirits either. Last year, two Oscar also-rans, “Uncut Gems” and “The Farewell,” compensated with top Spirit wins. Renee Zellweger took both the Best Actress Spirit and Oscar, and Bong Joon Ho won Best International Film for “Parasite” on the road to four Oscar wins including Best Picture. Like most awards, it comes down to what the most voters watched. Historically, where there’s overlap, the Spirits tend to lean into the Oscar contenders. Expected to collect Spirit wins this year are Lee Isaac Chung’s “Minari” with six nods and two expected wins; Chloé Zhao’s Oscar frontrunner “Nomadland,” which is likely to win four out of five nods; George C. Wolfe’s “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” which could win one out of five; and with three nods each, Darius Marder’s “Sound of Metal” and “Promising Young Woman” could each take home two Spirits. Among the closely contested Female Lead rivals, only SAG-winner Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”), BAFTA-winner Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”), and Critics Choice-winner Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) factor in the Oscar race. Among the Male Lead nominees, the late Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) is poised to continue his posthumous wins with both the Spirit and Oscar. Spirit nominations for “Minari” for Feature, Director and Screenplay (Chung), Male Lead (Steven Yeun) and two Supporting Females (Yeri Han and Yuh-jung Youn) turned the film into a must-see for Academy voters. SAG and BAFTA-winner Youn could win both the Spirit and the Oscar.
Focus Features Final predictions for the 2021 Film Independent Spirit Awards are listed below. Best Picture Will Win: “Nomadland” Spoiler: “Minari” Best Director Will Win: Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) Spoiler: Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”) Best Male Lead Will Win: Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) Spoiler: Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”) Best Supporting Male Will Win: Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”) Spoiler: Colman Domingo (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) Best Female Lead Will Win: Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) Spoiler: Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) Best Supporting Female Will Win: Yuh-jung Youn (“Minari”) Spoiler: Yeri Han (“Minari”) Best Screenplay Will Win: Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”) Spoiler: Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”) Best First Feature Will Win: Darius Marder (“Sound of Metal”) Spoiler: Radha Blank (“The 40-Year-Old Version”) Best First Screenplay Will Win: Andy Siara (“Palm Springs”) Spoiler: Channing Godfrey Peoples (“Miss Juneteenth”) Best Documentary Will Win: “Crip Camp” Spoiler: “Collective” Best International Film Will Win: “Quo Vadis, Aida?” Spoiler: “Bacurau” Best Cinematography Will Win: Joshua James Richards (“Nomadland”) Spoiler: Hélène Louvart (“Never Rarely Sometimes Always”) Best Editing Will Win: “Nomadland” Spoiler: “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” Cassavetes Award (film under $500,000) Will Win: “Saint Frances” Spoiler: “Lingua Franca” Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.
